Median sales price up in January even as pace of sales slows

Median sales chart

By Jason Boone

The numbers of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in January dropped compared with previous months — which probably shouldn’t be a surprise given our weather — but the median price of those homes that were bought was on the rise.

The median sales price in January 2017 was $370,813 — 4.6 percent higher than in December 2016 and 16.8 percent higher year-over-year.

If data from past years hold true this year, the January median sales price can be viewed as a floor of price support for the rest of the year. In four of the previous five years, the median sales price in January wound up no lower than the second-lowest median sales price for the entire calendar year.

In 2015, though, the year that was the exception, the end-of-year median sales price of $327,500 was lower than January’s median sales price of $329,700.

A total of 130 homes were sold in January 2017. That’s the fewest since 125 homes changed hands in February 2016. (On a per-day basis, though, the rate of sales last month was in fact quicker than in February 2016.) You’d have to go back another year, to January 2015 (when 120 homes were sold), to find a January with so few homes sold.

A drop in activity was also seen in the number of homes coming to market in January: 127, which is the fewest in any month in more than two years and the fewest in any January since 2012. Of course, Bend’s record-breaking snowfall could very well be responsible for at least some of the slowdown in real estate activity.

Other observations about January’s sales data:

  • The inventory of houses — the amount of time it would take for all homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of sales — was 3.1 months in January. That’s the lowest inventory for a January in the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has sales data and about 10 percent lower than the 3.4-month inventory of January 2016.
  • Sellers are pricing their homes appropriately. The average sales price to list price was back up to 99 percent from 98 percent in December 2016.
  • The percentage of active listings priced at $625,100 or more was 36 percent in January 2017. That’s the highest percentage of homes on the market in that price range since August 2016 (39 percent). There was 9.1 months of inventory of homes in that price range last month, the highest since February 2016.
  • Average days on the market rose from 121 days in December 141 in January. That is comparable to the previous January (138 days in January 2016). In the last five years, January’s average days on the market turned out to be the highest or second-highest figure for that calendar year.

After the snow clears, the pace of real estate activity in Bend is likely to pick up steam again. If you’re thinking about buying a home or considering selling, my knowledge of the market can be a considerable asset working in your favor. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Bend market sees traditional seasonal changes in December

By Jason Boone

With the end of the year comes a loosening of the pace in many businesses, and that includes the real estate market. As has been seen frequently in the past in Bend, Oregon, and has come to be expected, the market cooled before the calendar flipped on what turned out to be a record-setting year.

The number of homes sold in Bend in December was down from the previous month and from December of the previous year. Does that mean the market is leveling off? Well, consider that the median sales price was down 5.2 percent from November — but up 9.0 percent from December of the previous year.

Although the raw number of homes sold in December (192) was down from the 196 sold in November (and the 214 sold in December 2015), as a percentage of active listings, month-over-month sales went up in December 2016: from 42.4 percent of active listings in November to 47.8 percent of active listings in December.

Still, there were signs that the fever of the market is slackening.

The average sales price to list price in December was 98 percent. Other than in March (when there was an anomalous 95 percent ratio of the sales price to list price), 98 percent is the lowest this calendar year. And it was realized in three of the last five months of the calendar year.

But based on historical data, such a decline was to be expected in December. In two of the three previous years, even as the real estate market rebounded from the depths of the recession, the average sales price to list price in December was off the highs set in those calendar years.

That type of seasonal dip has been followed, in each of the last five years, by successively higher year-end median sales prices.

The inventory of homes on the market is frequently used to gauge the status of the market, with six months the widely accepted threshold between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. In December, we saw an inventory of 2.5 months — emphatically on the side of a seller’s market, yet the fourth-highest figure for that data point in Bend in 2016.

The preceding point might be the most apt reflection on the Bend market at the end of 2016: By the standard set earlier in the year — such as a median sales price of $385,750 in September — December represented a slowdown. But in looking at the time span for which the Skjersaa Group has data (dating to 2007), the $354,529 median sales price in December would have ranked as the fourth-highest entering 2016.

Other statistics of note from December’s sales report:

– December’s median sales price was the lowest since the $346,000 in March. But looking at previous years, such a decline isn’t unusual. The median price of $325,275 in December 2015 was more in line with the median sales price seen in the spring of that year.

– The median sales price for calendar year 2016 was $360,000. That number was essentially unchanged the final four months of the year and is the highest year-to-date median price in our 10-year data set. The previous high was $345,000, in 2007. The peak for the year-to-date median price in 2015 was $329,000; 2016’s figure represents a 9.4 percent increase.

– The average days on the market in December was 121. That is the longest since April, when it was 125. Year over year, the 121 days is one fewer than the average days on the market in December 2015.

Perhaps the best word to describe the Bend real estate market, as the above numbers indicate, is dynamic — things are always evolving. And whether you are considering selling your home or are investigating the possibility of buying, I can help. My knowledge of the Bend market and my attention to your needs will help produce an outcome that leaves you more than satisfied. To get started with listing your Bend home or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

No slowdown in Bend market as winter approaches

Even in the Bend real estate market, it’s reasonable to expect a slowdown in activity in the final months of the year, with fewer homes sold and prices dropping.

Except this year, that’s not happening in Bend.

November sales figures, in fact, showed an increase in the median sales price from the previous month, a rise in the number of units sold and a drop in inventory to a level traditionally seen only in summertime months.

The median sales price in November was $374,000. That is an increase of 1.2 percent over October’s median. For context on that, consider that the median sales price the previous two Novembers (after the housing market had begun its rebound) decreased. What’s more, the $374,000 median price in November 2016 matches the second-highest monthly median sales price this calendar year (also seen in May).

Part of what drove the rise in median price was the percentage of homes $625,000 or more that were sold. Seventeen percent of the homes that were sold in November were in that price range, which is the highest percentage for homes of that price this calendar year.

Looking at sales in all price ranges, the raw number of homes sold also increased month-over-month. It was a small increase from October (from 192 to 196), but homes sold as a percentage of active listings rose from 36 percent in October to 42 percent in November. The 42 percent mark is the highest for any November in the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data.

Another sign of the continued strength of the market is the inventory of homes for sale. The inventory is a measure of how long it would take, based on current pace of activity, to sell all of the active listings if no new properties went to market. The inventory in November was 2.3 months. That’s the lowest for any November in our data set and less than half of the six-month threshold that is traditionally regarded as the threshold between a seller’s and a buyer’s market. Until this calendar year, the inventory had dipped to 2.3 months once, in June 2013.

Data for November shows that the sale price-to-list price figure was 100 percent, which hadn’t been reached since September 2015.

Whether you are looking to sell your home or are exploring your options to buy, I can help you through the process. My knowledge of the Bend market and my attention to your needs will help produce an outcome that leaves you more than satisfied. To get started with listing your Bend home or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

October sales figures reflect normal seasonal changes

median-sales-price-chart_10-oct-2016By Jason Boone

The number of homes sold dropped and the median home-sale price in Bend, Oregon, fell in October, copying a trend from the previous October. The year-to-date median sales price continued to rise last month — as it has done each month in 2016 — adding a very small amount in October to the previous month’s figure.

From the September median sales price of $385,750 — the second-highest in the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data — October’s figure dropped 4.2 percent to $369,500. In three of the last four months, the median price has been less than $370,000, a threshold reached in May ($374,000), June ($370,000) and September.

For further context on October’s median sales price, consider this: Before 2016, October’s figure of $369,500 would have ranked as the second-highest for any month in the past 10 years, behind the high of $396,250 in May 2007.

One hundred ninety-two homes were sold in October, the fewest in any month since 185 were sold in March. A couple of other data points also indicate a slackening in the pace of sales.

The average sales price to list price was 98 percent, slightly off the 99 percent seen in seven of the previous nine months of 2016. The inventory of homes on the market rose from 2.4 months in September to 3.4 in October, which is the highest since a 4.9-month inventory at the end of February.

Inventory estimates how long it would take to sell all of the homes for sale if no new properties went to market. Six months is commonly used as the dividing line between a seller’s market and a buyer’s market, so even with the rise in October, the inventory in Bend skews toward a seller’s market.

From Jan. 1 to the end of October, the year-to-date median sales price in Bend is $360,000. That figure has risen every month this year from $317,450 in January. The increase from September to October was $100.

The real estate environment in October shared many characteristics with that of October 2015. Compared with the month before, the number of homes sold and the median sales price declined in October 2015, and the inventory rose. Rather than signaling a peak or a bubble in the market, however, the fall and winter market in 2015 was a quiet period before 2016’s almost-unprecedented sales prices.

And even with last year’s September-to-October decline in median sales price and homes sold, October 2015 ranked as the third-most active October in the 10 years for which we have data. In light of that, the changes in the market we saw this October appear as relatively normal, not a sign of a long-term weakening of the market.

Looking ahead to November, there were 258 pending sales at October’s end, very close to the 2016 end-of-month average of 256. November began with 465 active homes for sale; the beginning-of-month average this year is 452.

Whether you’re looking to sell your home or in the market to buy, my experience in the Bend market will help you achieve an optimal result. To learn more about Bend home options, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

August median sales price shows further leveling

By Jason Boone

In my review of May’s home sales data in Bend, Oregon, I suggested that the market might have been reaching a peak. The figures for the three months since seem to support that theory.

The median sales price of a home in August was $359,000. That represents the third month in succession that the median price has fallen, from May’s figure of $374,000 (which was the second-highest median figure in the 10-year period for which we have data).

Complementary data, however, show a still robust real estate market.

A decline in the median sales price in August might be reflection of the number of homes on the market. There were 534 active listings, the most this calendar year. The inventory of homes on the market (which represents how long it would take for all homes currently on the market to be sold if the number of houses for sale held steady) increased from 2.2 months in July to 2.4 months in August.

The inventory in Bend was nearly five months in February, but it has been less than three months in each of the six months since. Keep in mind that an inventory of six months is generally regarded as the boundary between a seller’s market and a buyer’s market — and we’re still at less than half of six months.

It’s worth considering also that the average days on the market for a sold home in August was 101 days. That’s an increase of four days from July but otherwise the lowest in this market since a 99-day average in May 2015.

The average sales price to list price in August was 98 percent. That’s the second-lowest of 2016. This calendar year had a string of 99 percent figures except for one month (95 percent in March), which probably has to be dismissed as noise. Excepting March, the average sales price to list price has been 99 percent in each month since October.

Despite the month-to-month declines in median sales price, the year-to-date median rose to a calendar-year high $356,124. That’s 9 percent more than the year-to-date median last August ($326,482). The August 2016 median sales price was 4.1 percent higher than last August’s.

Pending sales at the end of August numbered 257 — the fewest since 242 at the end of February. A similar drop in pending sales occurred last August, which could be a reflection of the end of the summer, typically a busy time for the real estate market.

The data indicate that it’s a good time to be either a seller or a buyer. To learn more about Bend home options, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Median sales price cools slightly, but market far from a deep freeze

Median_price_July_2016

By Jason Boone

Although the median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in July for the second month in a row, there are plenty of signs that the trajectory of the market has only slightly leveled off and hasn’t begun anything approaching a downward path.

July’s median sales price was $364,450, according to data compiled by the Skjersaa Group. That is 1.5 percent less than June’s median of $370,000. Since May, when the median was $374,000, the median price has dropped 2.6 percent.

Still, July’s $364,450 ranks as the fifth-highest median sale price in the Skjersaa Group’s data set, which dates to 2007. The only months with a greater median sales price than July’s were two months before the recession (April and May 2007) and May and June of this year.

In spring 2007, the market had an inventory of 12.8 months in April and 15.2 months in May. In July 2016, that inventory was up for the second consecutive month from a calendar-year low of 1.7 in May but still at a historically low 2.2 months.

A market’s inventory represents how long it would take for all homes currently on the market to be sold if the number of houses for sale held steady. An inventory of six months is generally regarded as the boundary between a seller’s market and a buyer’s market.

At the start of August, the Bend market had 534 active listings. That’s the most properties that have been for sale since October 2015, when 565 were listed. In terms of the number of listings, this year’s market is following a pattern begun in 2013, when July and August set calendar-year highs for listings (subsequent months in some past years exceeded August’s figures and pushed the calendar-year highs even higher).

Before a late-spring increase in homes on the market, the raw quantity of properties for sale in 2016 lagged what we saw in 2015. Beginning in July 2013, there were at least 400 active listings each month until January 2016, when there were 395. Not until May, when there were 407 properties for sale, did this year’s figures break through that milestone.

The average daReduced_July_2016ys on the market fell in July to 97, a low for the nearly 10 years for which we have data. The average sales price to list price remained at 99 percent (where it has been for eight of the last nine months), indicating that properties are coming onto the market at competitive prices.

The number of properties for sale that had a reduction in price hit a calendar-year high in July of 37 percent. Within the price tiers in the Skjersaa Group’s data that had at least five sales in July, homes in the $525,100-to-$625,000 range had the greatest percentage of reduced prices: 47 percent.

With 276 home sales pending at the end of July, we are bound to see another month of robust sales in August. Whether you’re looking to find the perfect Bend home or market your property this summer, I can assist you.

To learn more about Bend home options, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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