Median price in Bend rises slightly as year comes to close

A record-breaking year for real estate in Bend, Oregon, ended with higher prices in December than the month before.

December’s median sales price was $394,535, an increase of 1.2 percent from $390,000 in November. The inventory of homes for sale and average days on the market also reflected a slight tilt toward sellers, the two figures decreasing slightly from November.

Since the housing market started rebounding a few years ago, the November-to-December changes in data haven’t behaved consistently. For example, in the last six Decembers, the median price of homes was higher than the month prior three times, and it was lower than the month prior three times. The average days on the market over the last six Decembers has shown a month-to-month increase three times and a month-to-month decrease three times.

So, it’s difficult to try to draw any conclusions and make meaningful generalizations from the statistics from previous years. But here’s what we can tell you about December 2017:

1) December’s median price was 95 percent of calendar-year 2017’s highest median monthly sales price (that occurred in September, when the figure was $416,500). This year’s ratio of the December median price to the calendar-year maximum median price is the highest in the last five years (encompassing the period when the market got back on its feet).

Granted, trying to superimpose monthly divisions onto the behavior of the real estate market might not be an intellectually sound exercise. But the point is, if you accept that the prices in December – never the most active time of the year – are a sort of support point for the following calendar year, the prospects appear good that the Bend market will continue to experience appreciation in home values.

2) The year-over-year increase in the median price in December was 11.3 percent, the second-biggest year-over-year increase in December in the last five years.

3) The end-of-year median sales price for a home in Bend, Oregon, was $399,000 – the highest end-of-year figure for the 11 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data. Consider also that although December’s median price fell relative to the late-summer high of $416,500, December’s figure is less than $2,000 from what was the record monthly median sales figure before 2017 ($396,250 in May 2007).

In other words, there are a lot of signs that homes in Bend remain in high demand and will sell when priced appropriately. Wherever you are in the real estate process – considering selling your home or looking to buy – I can be of assistance. My experience, ethics and insight into the Bend market will come to bear as I work toward the best possible outcome for you. Please contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

November’s median sales price falls, not unexpectedly

The pace of home sales and the median price dropped in November compared with the previous month. But the one-month snapshot comparing November’s numbers to October’s doesn’t capture the bigger picture of the Bend, Oregon, real estate market.

November’s median sales price of $390,000 was 3.5 percent lower than October’s median of $404,250. A look back at historical numbers shows that this month-to-month development shouldn’t have been unexpected and isn’t evidence that the housing market is weakening.

This year marks the third time in the last four years that the median sales price fell in November compared with October. The one time the median price did rise, the increase from October to November was 1.2 percent. The drop in the median price we saw in November 2017 appears to be tied to the season.

I would recommend also taking a long-term perspective. We at the Skjersaa Group have sales data dating to the start of 2007. Until we reached 2017, in the years for which we have sales figures, only one month – May 2007 – had a median sales price that exceeded November’s $390,000. In other words, November’s median sales price was red-hot – except when compared with the prime selling season in 2017.

Even examining year-over-year changes, November 2017’s median sales price was 4.3 percent greater than November 2016’s $374,000.

Among the other numbers of note from November is the inventory of homes, which increased from 3.6 months in October to 5.1 months in November.

Inventory refers to the time it would take to sell every house on the market given the current pace of sales. Six months is frequently used as the dividing line between a buyer’s and a seller’s market.

November’s inventory of 5.1 months is the second-highest this calendar year, trailing September’s 5.7 months. This is the first calendar year since 2014 in which two months each had an inventory of at least five months.

Diving into the November’s inventory numbers, though, sharp differences appear based on the price of the homes. For every price range at $825,000 and below, there was less than 3.5 months of inventory – squarely on the side of a seller’s market. Only in the price ranges of $825,100 and above were there inventories of greater than six months.

Playing into the inventory was the quantity of homes on the market in November: 552. That’s the most for a November since 2009. Moreover, November’s 552 active listings represented a 4 percent decline from October. In each of the previous three calendar years, November’s listings were at least 10 percent lower than in the previous month. It appears fewer sellers are letting the calendar dictate when they have their house on the market.

Whatever the time of year, I can help you with your real estate transaction – whether you’re looking to buy a home or considering putting your house on the market. My knowledge of the Bend market and my dedication to serving my clients will help guarantee an outcome you’re happy with. Please contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Amid another record sales figure, buyers push back

Median sales figure graphThe median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, set another record in July, the second month in a row that figure has reached unprecedented levels. But along with the rising median sales price came evidence that the market is highly competitive and buyers are pushing back on overpriced homes.

July’s median sales price was $412,500. That’s $3,500 (0.9 percent) more than June’s median price. June and July are the only two months out of the more than 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data that Bend’s median sales price has exceeded $400,000.

Compared with the median sales price of July 2016, this July’s figure rose 13.2 percent. The year-over-year increase in June was 10.5 percent – meaning that July’s sales prices showed a greater annual increase than June’s.

But there are signs that sellers need to get ahead of the game and price their homes competitively.

The average days on the market in July was 141 days, compared with 91 days in June. The 141 days is the highest for any July since 2012, which is the only year since 2010 that a July has had a higher days-on-market figure than this year. Put another way: July 2017’s days on the market are the second-highest for any July in the last eight years.

Looking at it another way, consider that the highest figure for average days on the market in any month in 2016 was 142 days – and that came in February, a typically slow month for home sales.

Inventory of homes matches high for 2017

And the inventory – the number of months it would take to sell all homes currently on the market given the current pace of sales – rose in July to 3.7 months, matching the highest month of this calendar year (January) and last exceeded in February 2016, when there was 4.9 months of inventory.

Our data is broken down by various price ranges, and as is usual with our monthly sales figures, not every price range tells the same story.

The inventory of homes priced at $625,000 and less is at most three months. Homes priced at more than $625,000 are driving a big part of the overall inventory figure.

Sellers reduce prices on sizable fraction of homes

Accompanying the record for median sales price figures these last two months is another noteworthy — and perhaps counterintuitive — statistic: the percentage of homes on the market with price reductions.

That number was 43 percent in June and 40 percent in July. We have to go back to February 2009 — before the housing market rebounded — to find a month in which 40 percent of the homes for sale had a price reduction.

There were 570 active listings in July. That’s the highest amount since August 2015 (583 active listings). And on Aug. 1, 2017, there were 638 active listings, the most since there were 638 in October 2014.

The sales data these past couple of months are open to various interpretations. Wherever you are in the real estate cycle — buying a home or thinking of selling — I can help you. My integrity, ethics and experience will ensure you of an optimal outcome. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Median sales price falls for second month in a row. What happened last time that occurred?

The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the 10-plus years for which we have data.

May’s median sales price was $379,000. That’s 4.1 percent lower than March’s median sales price of $395,000 and 2.8 percent lower than April’s median of $389,950.

If recent history is any indication, this dip could eventually turn into a trampoline. The last time monthly median sales prices declined in consecutive months was in 2016 (when they fell for three months in a row, in fact). That stretch of monthly declines after the median price reached $374,000 in May ended emphatically with a 7.5 percent month-over-month increase from August to September to $385,750 – the calendar-year high for 2016.

Two hundred seventeen homes were sold in May, four fewer than in April. The number of houses whose priced was reduced was 107 — 32 percent. The last time the percentage of active listings with a reduced price was that high was in the three-month stretch in 2016 when the monthly median sales figure dropped. (See the previous paragraph for what happened after that three-month stretch.)

Year over year, May’s median sales price showed a 1.3 percent increase from the corresponding month in 2016. That is the smallest year-over-year increase in a monthly median sales figure since January 2016. That month, the median sales price of $317,450 was 3.7 percent lower than in January 2015.

The 2017 year-to-date median price stayed at $380,000 after taking into account May’s sales. That remains the highest year-to-date median price on record. In fact, each month of 2017 has reset or tied the record for the highest year-to-date median sales price.

High-end homes a big part of inventory

The inventory of homes rose to 3.1 months in May. Inventory — expressed as the time that would be required to sell all homes on the market given the current pace of activity — was 1.7 months in May 2016.

May 2017’s inventory is skewed, however, toward higher-priced homes. Of May’s 337 active listings, 33 percent were priced at more than $725,000 (that percentage was 25 percent in March and 31 percent in April). For homes priced from $225,100 to $625,000, the inventory is in the range of two months. And two months of inventory falls well on the side of being a “seller’s market.”

Tied to the inventory is the volume of homes on the market. Each month this year, the active listings have been the fewest for those respective months in the 10-plus years for which the Skjersaa Group has data. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the quantity of homes priced at $725,000 and less is particularly tight.

Late spring and summer traditionally are the most active months for real estate, and if you’re looking to buy a home or considering putting yours on the market, I can be of help. In my time as a Realtor, I have helped clients achieve their desired results regardless of the time of year and the trend of the market. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Median price drops in April, as does inventory of homes for sale

The median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in April compared with the month before, but the inventory of homes for sale fell for the third month in a row, leaving the tightest supply in more than 10 years.

The median sales price in April was $389,950. That’s 1.3 percent lower than March’s median of $395,000. The average sales price to list price of homes that sold in April was 97 percent, down from 101 percent the month prior.

On a year-over-year basis, April’s median sales price was 7.2 percent higher than April 2016’s figures. And the 2017 year-to-date median sales price rose to $380,000, $5,000 more than one month earlier and $40,000 more than the year-to-date median price through April 2016.

Despite the decline in price, April’s figure was the third-highest median sales price in the period for which the Skjersaa Group has data, which dates to the start of 2007.

Even with the decrease from March’s median sale price, April’s sales figures indicate the Bend housing market isn’t slackening. The inventory of homes — the time it would take for all homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of sales — is 1.4 months. And the average days on the market for homes sold in April was 96 days. Both of those numbers are the lowest for the time covered by our dataset.

The percentage of homes priced $625,100 and up made up 15 percent of the sales in April — the highest proportion of one month’s sales for homes of that price this calendar year.

Two hundred twenty homes were sold in April, the highest for that month in our dataset. Although that figure might reflect activity that was bottled up during our snowed-in winter, the unprecedented low average days on market would indicate that buyers are pouncing quickly.

There were 324 active listings in April, matching February for the fewest in a month this calendar year and the lowest for any April since at least 2007. May began with 389 active listings.

Now more than ever, a trustworthy, experienced Realtor is essential if you’re in the real estate market. on your side. Whether you’re considering selling your home or in the market for a new home, my insight and assistance will produce an optimal outcome. To learn more about how I can assist you, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Sales prices approach highest on record

March homes sales in Bend, Oregon, picked up compared with the previous month and registered the second-highest median sales price in the last 10 years.

The median price climbed to $395,000 in March. The only month in our data set (dating to the start of 2007) that figure has been higher has been May 2007, when it was $396,250.

March’s median sales price was 11.3 percent higher than February’s mark of $354,853. Year over year, March’s median represented a 14.2 percent increase.

The 11.3 percent monthly increase in March was the largest in Bend since January 2015 had a 13.7 percent increase from the month prior.

Can anything be learned from January 2015 that can be applied to the future of the current Bend market?

That can’t be answered. But it is worth pointing out that January 2015’s median sales price of $329,700 turned out to be greater than the year-end median sales price for the entirety of 2015 ($327,500).

And January 2015 represented the fifth-highest month for sales price in that year, whereas January usually is among the lowest months for median sales price.

Returning to the present year, remember that typically, March’s median sales price represents a “support” level, or a springboard, for prices for the remainder of the calendar year. In each of the last six calendar years, the month with the highest median sales price has been September or August. So it would be unusual for March’s median sales prices not to be exceeded in the coming months.

Other information in the March sales data support the position that Bend remains strongly a seller’s market.

For one, the inventory of homes on the market was 2.0 months. Inventory represents the amount of time it would take for all homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of sales. There is some debate about the boundary between a buyer’s and a seller’s market (with figures ranging from three to six months), but there’s no debating that March’s inventory was the third-lowest for the time span the Skjersaa Group has data and the lowest for any March in that period

The average days on the market in March was 112 days. That is 24 fewer days than in February (a halt to our record-breaking winter weather undoubtedly helped), and, perhaps more significant, 18 days fewer than in March 2016. The average days on market for the entirety of calendar year 2016 was 118 days.

We entered April with 273 pending sales, a number that promises another busy month.

As the real estate market gears up, it’s as important as ever to have a trusted, experienced Realtor on your side. Whether you’re looking to sell your home or considering buying, I can provide guidance and advice to ensure an optimal outcome for you. To learn more about how I can assist you, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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