Median sales price falls for second month in a row. What happened last time that occurred?

The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the 10-plus years for which we have data.

May’s median sales price was $379,000. That’s 4.1 percent lower than March’s median sales price of $395,000 and 2.8 percent lower than April’s median of $389,950.

If recent history is any indication, this dip could eventually turn into a trampoline. The last time monthly median sales prices declined in consecutive months was in 2016 (when they fell for three months in a row, in fact). That stretch of monthly declines after the median price reached $374,000 in May ended emphatically with a 7.5 percent month-over-month increase from August to September to $385,750 – the calendar-year high for 2016.

Two hundred seventeen homes were sold in May, four fewer than in April. The number of houses whose priced was reduced was 107 — 32 percent. The last time the percentage of active listings with a reduced price was that high was in the three-month stretch in 2016 when the monthly median sales figure dropped. (See the previous paragraph for what happened after that three-month stretch.)

Year over year, May’s median sales price showed a 1.3 percent increase from the corresponding month in 2016. That is the smallest year-over-year increase in a monthly median sales figure since January 2016. That month, the median sales price of $317,450 was 3.7 percent lower than in January 2015.

The 2017 year-to-date median price stayed at $380,000 after taking into account May’s sales. That remains the highest year-to-date median price on record. In fact, each month of 2017 has reset or tied the record for the highest year-to-date median sales price.

High-end homes a big part of inventory

The inventory of homes rose to 3.1 months in May. Inventory — expressed as the time that would be required to sell all homes on the market given the current pace of activity — was 1.7 months in May 2016.

May 2017’s inventory is skewed, however, toward higher-priced homes. Of May’s 337 active listings, 33 percent were priced at more than $725,000 (that percentage was 25 percent in March and 31 percent in April). For homes priced from $225,100 to $625,000, the inventory is in the range of two months. And two months of inventory falls well on the side of being a “seller’s market.”

Tied to the inventory is the volume of homes on the market. Each month this year, the active listings have been the fewest for those respective months in the 10-plus years for which the Skjersaa Group has data. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the quantity of homes priced at $725,000 and less is particularly tight.

Late spring and summer traditionally are the most active months for real estate, and if you’re looking to buy a home or considering putting yours on the market, I can be of help. In my time as a Realtor, I have helped clients achieve their desired results regardless of the time of year and the trend of the market. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Median price drops in April, as does inventory of homes for sale

The median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in April compared with the month before, but the inventory of homes for sale fell for the third month in a row, leaving the tightest supply in more than 10 years.

The median sales price in April was $389,950. That’s 1.3 percent lower than March’s median of $395,000. The average sales price to list price of homes that sold in April was 97 percent, down from 101 percent the month prior.

On a year-over-year basis, April’s median sales price was 7.2 percent higher than April 2016’s figures. And the 2017 year-to-date median sales price rose to $380,000, $5,000 more than one month earlier and $40,000 more than the year-to-date median price through April 2016.

Despite the decline in price, April’s figure was the third-highest median sales price in the period for which the Skjersaa Group has data, which dates to the start of 2007.

Even with the decrease from March’s median sale price, April’s sales figures indicate the Bend housing market isn’t slackening. The inventory of homes — the time it would take for all homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of sales — is 1.4 months. And the average days on the market for homes sold in April was 96 days. Both of those numbers are the lowest for the time covered by our dataset.

The percentage of homes priced $625,100 and up made up 15 percent of the sales in April — the highest proportion of one month’s sales for homes of that price this calendar year.

Two hundred twenty homes were sold in April, the highest for that month in our dataset. Although that figure might reflect activity that was bottled up during our snowed-in winter, the unprecedented low average days on market would indicate that buyers are pouncing quickly.

There were 324 active listings in April, matching February for the fewest in a month this calendar year and the lowest for any April since at least 2007. May began with 389 active listings.

Now more than ever, a trustworthy, experienced Realtor is essential if you’re in the real estate market. on your side. Whether you’re considering selling your home or in the market for a new home, my insight and assistance will produce an optimal outcome. To learn more about how I can assist you, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Sales prices approach highest on record

March homes sales in Bend, Oregon, picked up compared with the previous month and registered the second-highest median sales price in the last 10 years.

The median price climbed to $395,000 in March. The only month in our data set (dating to the start of 2007) that figure has been higher has been May 2007, when it was $396,250.

March’s median sales price was 11.3 percent higher than February’s mark of $354,853. Year over year, March’s median represented a 14.2 percent increase.

The 11.3 percent monthly increase in March was the largest in Bend since January 2015 had a 13.7 percent increase from the month prior.

Can anything be learned from January 2015 that can be applied to the future of the current Bend market?

That can’t be answered. But it is worth pointing out that January 2015’s median sales price of $329,700 turned out to be greater than the year-end median sales price for the entirety of 2015 ($327,500).

And January 2015 represented the fifth-highest month for sales price in that year, whereas January usually is among the lowest months for median sales price.

Returning to the present year, remember that typically, March’s median sales price represents a “support” level, or a springboard, for prices for the remainder of the calendar year. In each of the last six calendar years, the month with the highest median sales price has been September or August. So it would be unusual for March’s median sales prices not to be exceeded in the coming months.

Other information in the March sales data support the position that Bend remains strongly a seller’s market.

For one, the inventory of homes on the market was 2.0 months. Inventory represents the amount of time it would take for all homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of sales. There is some debate about the boundary between a buyer’s and a seller’s market (with figures ranging from three to six months), but there’s no debating that March’s inventory was the third-lowest for the time span the Skjersaa Group has data and the lowest for any March in that period

The average days on the market in March was 112 days. That is 24 fewer days than in February (a halt to our record-breaking winter weather undoubtedly helped), and, perhaps more significant, 18 days fewer than in March 2016. The average days on market for the entirety of calendar year 2016 was 118 days.

We entered April with 273 pending sales, a number that promises another busy month.

As the real estate market gears up, it’s as important as ever to have a trusted, experienced Realtor on your side. Whether you’re looking to sell your home or considering buying, I can provide guidance and advice to ensure an optimal outcome for you. To learn more about how I can assist you, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Median price drops in February amid overall mixed data

UntitledLooking solely at February’s median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, one might be struck by the decline from the previous month. But other data from the real estate market indicate the demand for homes remains strong.

February’s median sales price was $354,853. That’s 4.3 percent lower than January 2017’s figure of $370,813. Compared with February 2016, however, median prices showed a 7.0 percent increase.

This was the sixth consecutive February in which there was a year-over-year increase in the median sales price. Last month’s 7.0 percent year-over-year rise was the second-lowest over this six-year span, not much more than the 6.8 percent increase from February 2014 to February 2015. In the other four years, the February year-over-year increase in the median sales price was more than 14 percent, and — looking at just one month earlier — the year-over-year increase from January 2016 to January 2017 was 16.8 percent.

Does February’s median sales price mean that the appetite for homes is grinding down? In considering this question, it’s worth looking at other information from last month.

The inventory of homes for sale decreased from 3.1 months in January to 2.7 months in February. In 2016, the February inventory of 4.9 months was a calendar-year high.

The average days on the market in February also reflected a more active than usual February market. In January, the average days on market was 141 days, and in February it fell to 136, within two days of the shortest time in any February in the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data.

One hundred twenty-eight homes were sold in February. On a per-day basis, that’s a higher rate than the 130 sold in January. Comparing to February in previous years, the 128 is the second-most sold in the last 10 years, behind the 131 in 2014.

But there’s also this: Fifty-seven houses on the market in Bend reflected a reduced price. As a percentage of active listings (324 homes), that is 17.6 percent. Looking, again, to February in previous calendar years, that was the most since a 19.9 percent reduced rate in February 2011. In February 2012, the rate was 17.5 percent, essentially the same as in February of this year.

The percentage of homes priced at $625,100 or more continues to be the largest segment of homes on the market. Of the 324 active listings in February, 35 percent (114 homes) were in this price range after 36 percent of active listings were of this price in January. As the calendar turned to March, there were 326 active listings, and the percentage of homes priced $625,100 or more was higher: 38 percent.

Whatever the market is doing, you will benefit from having an experienced Realtor working for your best interests. I know the Bend market and will help you realize a worry-free outcome — whether you’re considering selling your home or you’re a buyer. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Median sales price up in January even as pace of sales slows

Median sales chart

By Jason Boone

The numbers of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in January dropped compared with previous months — which probably shouldn’t be a surprise given our weather — but the median price of those homes that were bought was on the rise.

The median sales price in January 2017 was $370,813 — 4.6 percent higher than in December 2016 and 16.8 percent higher year-over-year.

If data from past years hold true this year, the January median sales price can be viewed as a floor of price support for the rest of the year. In four of the previous five years, the median sales price in January wound up no lower than the second-lowest median sales price for the entire calendar year.

In 2015, though, the year that was the exception, the end-of-year median sales price of $327,500 was lower than January’s median sales price of $329,700.

A total of 130 homes were sold in January 2017. That’s the fewest since 125 homes changed hands in February 2016. (On a per-day basis, though, the rate of sales last month was in fact quicker than in February 2016.) You’d have to go back another year, to January 2015 (when 120 homes were sold), to find a January with so few homes sold.

A drop in activity was also seen in the number of homes coming to market in January: 127, which is the fewest in any month in more than two years and the fewest in any January since 2012. Of course, Bend’s record-breaking snowfall could very well be responsible for at least some of the slowdown in real estate activity.

Other observations about January’s sales data:

  • The inventory of houses — the amount of time it would take for all homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of sales — was 3.1 months in January. That’s the lowest inventory for a January in the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has sales data and about 10 percent lower than the 3.4-month inventory of January 2016.
  • Sellers are pricing their homes appropriately. The average sales price to list price was back up to 99 percent from 98 percent in December 2016.
  • The percentage of active listings priced at $625,100 or more was 36 percent in January 2017. That’s the highest percentage of homes on the market in that price range since August 2016 (39 percent). There was 9.1 months of inventory of homes in that price range last month, the highest since February 2016.
  • Average days on the market rose from 121 days in December 141 in January. That is comparable to the previous January (138 days in January 2016). In the last five years, January’s average days on the market turned out to be the highest or second-highest figure for that calendar year.

After the snow clears, the pace of real estate activity in Bend is likely to pick up steam again. If you’re thinking about buying a home or considering selling, my knowledge of the market can be a considerable asset working in your favor. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Bend market sees traditional seasonal changes in December

By Jason Boone

With the end of the year comes a loosening of the pace in many businesses, and that includes the real estate market. As has been seen frequently in the past in Bend, Oregon, and has come to be expected, the market cooled before the calendar flipped on what turned out to be a record-setting year.

The number of homes sold in Bend in December was down from the previous month and from December of the previous year. Does that mean the market is leveling off? Well, consider that the median sales price was down 5.2 percent from November — but up 9.0 percent from December of the previous year.

Although the raw number of homes sold in December (192) was down from the 196 sold in November (and the 214 sold in December 2015), as a percentage of active listings, month-over-month sales went up in December 2016: from 42.4 percent of active listings in November to 47.8 percent of active listings in December.

Still, there were signs that the fever of the market is slackening.

The average sales price to list price in December was 98 percent. Other than in March (when there was an anomalous 95 percent ratio of the sales price to list price), 98 percent is the lowest this calendar year. And it was realized in three of the last five months of the calendar year.

But based on historical data, such a decline was to be expected in December. In two of the three previous years, even as the real estate market rebounded from the depths of the recession, the average sales price to list price in December was off the highs set in those calendar years.

That type of seasonal dip has been followed, in each of the last five years, by successively higher year-end median sales prices.

The inventory of homes on the market is frequently used to gauge the status of the market, with six months the widely accepted threshold between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. In December, we saw an inventory of 2.5 months — emphatically on the side of a seller’s market, yet the fourth-highest figure for that data point in Bend in 2016.

The preceding point might be the most apt reflection on the Bend market at the end of 2016: By the standard set earlier in the year — such as a median sales price of $385,750 in September — December represented a slowdown. But in looking at the time span for which the Skjersaa Group has data (dating to 2007), the $354,529 median sales price in December would have ranked as the fourth-highest entering 2016.

Other statistics of note from December’s sales report:

– December’s median sales price was the lowest since the $346,000 in March. But looking at previous years, such a decline isn’t unusual. The median price of $325,275 in December 2015 was more in line with the median sales price seen in the spring of that year.

– The median sales price for calendar year 2016 was $360,000. That number was essentially unchanged the final four months of the year and is the highest year-to-date median price in our 10-year data set. The previous high was $345,000, in 2007. The peak for the year-to-date median price in 2015 was $329,000; 2016’s figure represents a 9.4 percent increase.

– The average days on the market in December was 121. That is the longest since April, when it was 125. Year over year, the 121 days is one fewer than the average days on the market in December 2015.

Perhaps the best word to describe the Bend real estate market, as the above numbers indicate, is dynamic — things are always evolving. And whether you are considering selling your home or are investigating the possibility of buying, I can help. My knowledge of the Bend market and my attention to your needs will help produce an outcome that leaves you more than satisfied. To get started with listing your Bend home or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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