November’s median sales price falls, not unexpectedly

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The pace of home sales and the median price dropped in November compared with the previous month. But the one-month snapshot comparing November’s numbers to October’s doesn’t capture the bigger picture of the Bend, Oregon, real estate market.

November’s median sales price of $390,000 was 3.5 percent lower than October’s median of $404,250. A look back at historical numbers shows that this month-to-month development shouldn’t have been unexpected and isn’t evidence that the housing market is weakening.

This year marks the third time in the last four years that the median sales price fell in November compared with October. The one time the median price did rise, the increase from October to November was 1.2 percent. The drop in the median price we saw in November 2017 appears to be tied to the season.

I would recommend also taking a long-term perspective. We at the Skjersaa Group have sales data dating to the start of 2007. Until we reached 2017, in the years for which we have sales figures, only one month – May 2007 – had a median sales price that exceeded November’s $390,000. In other words, November’s median sales price was red-hot – except when compared with the prime selling season in 2017.

Even examining year-over-year changes, November 2017’s median sales price was 4.3 percent greater than November 2016’s $374,000.

Among the other numbers of note from November is the inventory of homes, which increased from 3.6 months in October to 5.1 months in November.

Inventory refers to the time it would take to sell every house on the market given the current pace of sales. Six months is frequently used as the dividing line between a buyer’s and a seller’s market.

November’s inventory of 5.1 months is the second-highest this calendar year, trailing September’s 5.7 months. This is the first calendar year since 2014 in which two months each had an inventory of at least five months.

Diving into the November’s inventory numbers, though, sharp differences appear based on the price of the homes. For every price range at $825,000 and below, there was less than 3.5 months of inventory – squarely on the side of a seller’s market. Only in the price ranges of $825,100 and above were there inventories of greater than six months.

Playing into the inventory was the quantity of homes on the market in November: 552. That’s the most for a November since 2009. Moreover, November’s 552 active listings represented a 4 percent decline from October. In each of the previous three calendar years, November’s listings were at least 10 percent lower than in the previous month. It appears fewer sellers are letting the calendar dictate when they have their house on the market.

Whatever the time of year, I can help you with your real estate transaction – whether you’re looking to buy a home or considering putting your house on the market. My knowledge of the Bend market and my dedication to serving my clients will help guarantee an outcome you’re happy with. Please contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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